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WEEKLY RECAP INSIDE DISCORD #3

7/3/2022

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In this video I am going over how we performed last week and explain the trades and why I posted them to the group.
Below are a selection of the trade Ideas discussed with members and I will cover all calls in the video above. 
These are just my market observations and encourage members to use them as a guide in their own trading.

AUDCAD SELL

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GBPUSD SELL

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EURCAD SELL

Order Not Triggered
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GBPCAD

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EURJPY

Moved my stops to breakeven and got taken out before going to target
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WEEKLY TRADING FORECAST & CHART OF THE WEEK #2

7/3/2022

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WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS

Click video below to watch the latest analysis and do be cautious this week as its a heavy news week. 

Chart of the week
GBPUSD

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This week I have singled out GbpUsd for more downside and have indicated some areas of interest (AOI) on the chart below.

Lets take a look at some of the key factors surrounding the Pound at the moment.

​ During July, the pound lost ground against major currencies and sank more than 1% below $1.2, approaching its lowest point since the pandemic outbreak in March 2020. Due to investors' growing concerns about a looming recession, sterling's appeal diminished, while uncertainty over the Northern Ireland Protocol and softening expectations about the Bank of England's tightening outlook also hurt the pound. The BoE has raised interest rates five times since December when it became the first major central bank to increase borrowing costs after the COVID-19 pandemic, but traders are scaling back some rate hike bets as recent weak economic data could be an early indication that tightening is slowing the economy. The sterling closed the first half of 2022 down 10%, its worst first-half performance since 2008. - Trading Economics

Key levels = Resistance 1.220 - 1.218
                         Resistance 1.211 - 1.2085

EURUSD

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Energy crisis in Europe has obscured even further the prospects for Eurozone growth, making it more difficult for the ECB to tame record inflation rates. In June of 2022, the Euro Area's annual inflation rate reached a new record high of 8.6%, once again exceeding market expectations.
AOI = 1.0500 - 1.4700
​EVENTS = ECB MEETING ON THURS
​
FOMC Minutes ON WED
​Non Farm Payrolls ON FRI


AUDUSD

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As commodity currencies came under pressure from Fed’s aggressive tightening plans and an escalating global recession risk, the Australian dollar declined past $0.685 on Friday, hitting its lowest levels in two years. 
It is likely that the RBA will raise interest rates by half a point on Tuesday following a higher-than-expected rise of 50 basis points in June, but I personally think any move from here should be faded.

AOI = 0.687 - 0.685
EVENTS = 
RBA Interest Rate Decision ON TUES
FOMC Minutes ON WED
Non Farm Payrolls ON FRI

NZDUSD

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Recent data has showed 63% of businesses in New Zealand expect economic conditions to deteriorate over the coming year due mainly to supply disruptions and surging cost pressures, highlighting risks to the country’s economic trajectory. This presents a challenge to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand which is expected to stick to its aggressive tightening path to bring down inflation, even if it means risking a recession.
AOI = 0.6200 - 0.6213
EVENTS = 
FOMC Minutes ON WED
Non Farm Payrolls ON FRI

CRYPTO


BITCOIN

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Over the last 12 months, Bitcoin fell by 44.59 percent. Looking ahead I'm looking to trade with the momentum and at the moment the momentum is to the downside. 
Unless we reclaim the ATH from 2017, I see no reason the be bullish.

ETHEREUM

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Over the last 12 months, its price fell by 52.16 percent and momentum is clearly with the bears at the moment. One thing I'm looking for is a break and retest of Inside Bar lows in the search for more downside and eventually the lows around 875.00

AVAX

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Looking back, over the last four weeks, Avalanche lost 30.21%, so Bears are still in control and seem to be on the verge of breaking some support. I remain Bearish on this instrument and any trades I place will reflect that.

SOLANA

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Awaiting break of trendline to become interested in this instrument as it is just ranging for now.
As always these are my personal market observations and not trading advice.
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BULLISH PATTERN ON BITCOIN? #1

7/1/2022

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I'll be on the lookout for potential trades to the upside at $17596, as BTC looks like it's headed towards the lows. I discuss a pattern I see time and time again on Bitcoin in the video below, and I have also included a bullish and bearish example beneath the video.
Currently, the price is trading between $20,000 and $19,000, but for me to really get invested in longs again we would need to reclaim the 2017 ATH.

    Video

4hChart

We may see a day trade on Bitcoin if we break local support at $1895 and trade to $17596 (Mother Bar Low), but I'm waiting for price to show me it's willing to do so and then from there I will be waiting to see if we can get a rejection of the lows.
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Bullish example of pattern

​Below I have illustrated how we can use this pattern to get into longs.
First trade is when we raid with a Pin Bar candle at the Mother Bar Lows, as you can see we are pushed right into resistance or FTA (First Trouble Area), we then get a retest of Mother Bar Lows for a second trade, and finally on the third touch of the lows, we rocket up and take out the Mother Bar Highs for a monster trade.
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Bearish Example of pattern

​With the bearish example, the entry is rather different, we get a deviation from the Mother Bar High with a close outside followed by a retest, then we break back in and retest the underside.
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To summarize, this is only a market observation, and I use it with the confluence of other market factors, I would encourage you to conduct your own research on this pattern.

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