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Gold swing trade & A look at EurUsd Ahead of ECB

7/20/2022

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GOLD VIDEO
EURUSD
For the first time in over a decade, the central bank is expected to start raising rates, and the market consensus is for a 25bps hike, although bets on a bigger 50bps increase have increased recently.
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Since the beginning of the week, the pair has been rising, with a recent push back above last weeks high around 1.0200. We are moving within a larger timeframe trend to the downside, and levels of resistance are not too far off at 1.0350 - 1.0400. There may be a push up into this area on Thursday, and from there I will monitor price action to see if we can fade a move with potentially targeting a move  back down to parity.


As you can see on the daily chart below, I have highlighted my area of interest which is resistance on this timeframe, and I will then monitor price movement from there.
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DAILY
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2HR
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On the 2 hour chart, I will simply follow structure up to the level and then wait to see the outcome of the meeting on Thursday. A surprise hike may result in further upside but I think the best plan of action is to have your levels marked out and then wait for the meeting.
Price action will determine if I get involved with this market, but I have a plan in place and will execute if everything falls into place, if not, then we wait until the next opportunity arises.
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USD/JPY Trade Idea

7/19/2022

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While other major central banks are aggressively raising rates to curb inflation, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain ultra-low interest rates this week.
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USDJPY still holds my interest, and I think Monday's range low would be a great entry point. A failure to reclaim Mondays low would end my interest in UsdJpy for the time being.


DAILY

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2H

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WEEKLY TRADING FORECAST & CHART OF THE WEEK #5

7/10/2022

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Chart Of The Week 
GBPUSD

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As recession risks loom and investors doubt the BoE will be able to control inflation without damaging the economy, the pound has fallen to pandemic-lows since May 2021. 

Inflation shows no sign of peaking, and households are likely to become even more stretched in the coming months, with markets scaling back some rate hike bets. 
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​After several cabinet members quit, Boris Johnson resigned, making him the UK's fourth prime minister in six years. I am expecting further downside on the British Pound as a result of all this uncertainty.

EURUSD

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AUDUSD

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NZDUSD

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USDJPY

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ETH

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BTC

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DECISION TIME ON BITCOIN #ISSUE 4

7/5/2022

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Tuesday, July 5th, Bitcoin is trading at the 2017 ATH around 19,776.99,
Over the last four weeks, Bitcoin has lost 37.46% and momentum is currently to the downside.

I prefer to trade with momentum and I am currently waiting for a break of the pullback structure.
In the short term, we could see a bullish move to take out stops around 22k, but to get involved, we should see a break out of this consolidation for confirmation, and then look for more shorting opportunities from 22k.


There are two likely scenarios going forward:

  1. Bullish: The price breaks above the trendline and closes above 2017 ATH and attempts to reach IB highs at 22k.
  2. Bearish: In the absence of a new bullish move, price breaks below the pull back structure and trendline, staying below 2017 ATH and using it as resistance.
Therefore, I am patiently waiting for bitcoin to show its hand to determine my next move.

As always these are my personal market observations.


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